tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38755963430360255122024-03-13T18:29:59.260-07:00Leaked Research JapanResearch from investment banks, government think tanks and many more hard to find sources.Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-86248409029969262712011-03-24T18:56:00.001-07:002011-03-24T18:56:43.499-07:00Richard Koo: Eastern Japan quake leaves massive damage in its wake<p><img style="margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; display: inline; float: left" align="left" src="http://ts4.mm.bing.net/images/thumbnail.aspx?q=749029236203&id=2f00043c60a2cd5588f307176f8e7b2b&url=http%3a%2f%2fi.ytimg.com%2fvi%2fHaNxAzLKegU%2f0.jpg" />Richard Koo “Last Friday’s earthquake was Japan’s largest ever and struck a devastating blow to the nation, especially to the Tohoku region in the northeast. With towns and cities completely washed away by the tsunami and mountain villages rendered unreachable by rescue teams as a result of landslides, it is thought that the number of dead may exceed 10,000, with hundreds of thousands forced out of their homes. I would like to express my sincere condolences to those affected by the disaster.</p> <p>The quake has already interrupted the production of food, energy, and manufactured goods, with conditions not expected to return to normal for weeks or months. It appears increasingly likely that economic activity will suffer even in areas not directly hit by the earthquake or the subsequent tsunami as rolling power outages, disruptions to the transportation network, and supply chain problems interfere with production. <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" />The uncertainty surrounding the situation at the nuclear power stations in Fukushima is also a major negative both in terms of the energy supply outlook and the psychological impact on the public. Official statements in the initial stages of the crisis were inconsistent and far from convincing, which has served to breed distrust of the government both inside and outside Japan.” <br clear="all" /></p> <p><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/8zmg6tfdgpv4mgd.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></p> <p> </p> <div style="padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: none; padding-top: 0px" id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:410387c4-1583-4599-a29c-2a9e9801374a" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent">del.icio.us Tags: <a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Richard+Koo" rel="tag">Richard Koo</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Japan" rel="tag">Japan</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Earthquake" rel="tag">Earthquake</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Nomura" rel="tag">Nomura</a></div> <div style="padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: none; padding-top: 0px" id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:27c45d2d-3448-4043-acdf-07e768d53c64" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent">Hedge Analyst Ticker Bookmarks: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Richard+Koo" rel="tag">Richard Koo</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Japan" rel="tag">Japan</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Earthquake" rel="tag">Earthquake</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Nomura" rel="tag">Nomura</a></div> <div style="padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: none; padding-top: 0px" id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:306a8e4a-c043-414a-91aa-f7019303934d" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent">IceRocket Tags: <a href="http://blogs.icerocket.com/search?q=Richard+Koo" rel="tag">Richard Koo</a>,<a href="http://blogs.icerocket.com/search?q=Japan" rel="tag">Japan</a>,<a href="http://blogs.icerocket.com/search?q=Earthquake" rel="tag">Earthquake</a>,<a href="http://blogs.icerocket.com/search?q=Nomura" rel="tag">Nomura</a></div> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-74011642377794688112011-03-21T04:21:00.001-07:002011-03-21T04:21:38.653-07:00Global Reaction to Japan’s Nuclear Crisis As Crisis Deepens, Rhetoric and Risk of Delays Increases<div style="margin: 1em; width: 310px; display: block; float: right" class="zemanta-img"><a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Susquehanna_steam_electric_station.jpg"><img style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; display: block; border-top: medium none; border-right: medium none" alt="Both reactors and cooling towers at the Susque..." src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/df/Susquehanna_steam_electric_station.jpg/300px-Susquehanna_steam_electric_station.jpg" width="300" height="265" /></a> <p style="font-size: 0.8em" class="zemanta-img-attribution">Image via <a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Susquehanna_steam_electric_station.jpg">Wikipedia</a></p> </div> <p><strong>At this point</strong>, it seems that the nuclear facilities and safety systems impacted by the earthquake and tsunami have worked according to specifications. Even so, the increasingly worrisome situation at the Japanese nuclear power generation facilities has led to significant concerns across the globe. In the U.S. and internationally, government officials have expressed concerns as well as support for nuclear power generation (See section entitled “Quotes, Viewpoints and Strategies” on page 7 for more details). That said, at this point, we believe it is reasonable to assume that the perception of nuclear safety globally has been adversely impacted. In our view, the process of sorting through the lessons learned from this event could lead to delays in design certification/construction (i.e. most impacted SHAW).</p> <p><strong>Alternatives to Nuclear Power Should be Beneficiaries –</strong> A potential delay in plans for nuclear power generation should likely benefit companies that can build natural gas, coal and renewable energy power generation facilities (i.e. most exposed BWC, FLR, FWLT, and SHAW). Moreover, companies that can provide maintenance services for nuclear plants currently in operation should also benefit (i.e. most exposed SHAW and BWC). For instance, in the U.S. there are currently 104 reactors accounting for ~20% of power generation. Globally, nuclear power accounts for roughly 18% of total power generation (See Figure 1). <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/t2cu18r9pyvpq1h.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-13957751017814148282011-03-18T15:57:00.001-07:002011-03-18T15:57:20.587-07:00Which Banks are Hurt from the EarthquakeFour ways that the disaster may impact the banks sector We anticipate four ways in which the disaster may affect the banks sector: 1) damage to<a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYPjTgJBYGI/AAAAAAAAAsk/yEVYrPuukOk/s1600-h/ms22.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: right; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="ms2" border="0" alt="ms2" align="right" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYPjUPSHAcI/AAAAAAAAAso/3gVXbWTQsac/ms2_thumb.jpg?imgmax=800" width="244" height="172" /></a> facilities such as branches and ATMs; 2) higher credit costs due to decline in borrower creditworthiness; 3) downturn in earnings conditions due to macroeconomic decline; and 4) the additional risk of impairment to equity holdings due to a stock market decline. More Research <a href="http://leakedresearchjap.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">here</a> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/vqk1j4bok9ujziq.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"><P></P></embed> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-40603771054772432672011-03-17T22:02:00.001-07:002011-03-17T22:02:46.366-07:00Alibaba.com (1688.HK) Getting Back to the Basics<p><strong><img style="margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; display: inline; float: right" align="right" src="http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSGfRtyUAPTUW9LZF0fgWgsay2TI-zrGPu9GjvLPfxZRBA3mGNT" />Alibaba.com (1688.HK) Focus on Service Offering and Transaction-Based Platform </strong></p> <p>De-emphasizing importance of membership growth After adding 12,702 new China Gold Supplier membership in 4Q10 to a total of 121,274 membership base, Alibaba reaffirmed that total CGS members in 2011 will be flattish from 2010, mainly driven by 1) its proactive focus on improving customer services and enhancing user experience and 2) factoring in the CGS 2011 launch of a 50% increase in new price package to Rmb29,800, up from Rmb19,800 previously.</p> <p><strong>Key metrics for both marketplaces also remained healthy: </strong></p> <p>International Marketplace: Revs were RMB881m (+4% QoQ, +28% YoY) in 4Q10. – China Gold Supplier (“CGS”): China Gold Supplier added 12,702 net adds, up 11.7% QoQ and 28% YoY to 121,274 paying members. The growth of net account addition has slowed as expected, as the company has switched its focus to customer retention and monetization. In 4Q10, VAS contributes over 25% of CGS revenue. CGS revenue <br clear="all" />was Rmb857m in 4Q10, increased 28% from a year ago. <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/n3ejpzdhhgr90c1.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-14266340335371346932011-03-17T22:01:00.001-07:002011-03-17T22:01:38.054-07:00Eastern Japan earthquake/Power Supply Power Shortfall in the Summer Looks Inevitable<p>Can peak demand be met? — We are being asked a lot whether it will be possible to supply enough electric power if surplus capacity is operated at full tilt. Electric power supply/demand is complicated by the issue of sourcing from other firms as well as from the power company’s own facilities. Below <img style="display: inline; float: right" align="right" src="http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT8F-AxCLo6hpR4RlmYgqoWhycvfv3AN8a9HJyneM1gqUTNYAE7" />we summarize the situation but we conclude that it will not be easy to get hold of enough power (Figure 1). Over the long term, the capacity loss could be made up through measures such as the construction of new LNG power stations but we would expect this to take three years or more. Ways of quickly sourcing enough power include the early restart of nuclear plants currently undergoing routine maintenance and manufacturing industry building</p> <p>Any fix from other regions, nuclear? — With TEPCO and Tohoku Electric, who have traditionally worked in tandem, both suffering, supply from western Japan is the only geographical fix, but only 1mn kW is available, due to the east/west difference in utility frequencies, and we have already counted this in TEPCO’s supply capacity. As for idled nuclear capacity, TEPCO has 3.3mn kW at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, while Tohoku Electric has 1.1mn kW at Higashidori, which we believe was not affected by the tsunami, and 2.2mn kW at Onagawa, but restarting these is unlikely to be politically possible before summer. <br clear="all" /></p> <p><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/n0yvvqleh7e7o4f.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-44538110457201162402011-03-16T08:34:00.001-07:002011-03-16T08:34:38.499-07:00China Equity Strategy Alert: Impact of the Fukushima Earthquake<p><strong><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYDYjCjjpsI/AAAAAAAAAqI/guA-JpzDJDQ/s1600-h/china37.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="china3" border="0" alt="china3" align="left" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYDYjX6So4I/AAAAAAAAAqM/60KEOdOey64/china3_thumb5.jpg?imgmax=800" width="208" height="208" /></a>On energy —</strong> The explosion and shutdown of nuclear power plants would increase Japan’s demand for fossil fuels, at least in the near term. The short supply of power has led to the shutdown of auto plants and other factories. But the ultimate impact of the disaster on fossil fuels is not clear. On the one hand, nuclear power could be seen as dangerous, and the global economy may rely more on fossil fuels going forward until a safe and economical substitute is available; on the other hand, the quake could be linked to global warming in which too much consumption of fossil fuels was one of the key causes, and thus the result could be just the opposite. What is clear is that the near-term volatility in the global oil market should continue, alongside the MENA crisis.</p> <p><strong>On China’s trade —</strong> China’s exports to Japan were about 8% of the total in 2010, and imports from Japan about 12% of the total imports, both down from about 18% a decade ago. In 2010, about 72.5% of China’s exports to Japan fell into five industries: machinery (39.2%), textile (18%), chemicals (5.6%), base metals (5.6%), and food (4.1%). Meanwhile, exports of autos and transportation equipment were only 2.9% of exports. Of China’s imports from Japan, 85.3% came from five key industries: machinery (48%), base metals (11.1%), autos & transport equipment (9.4%), chemicals (8.4%) and optical, photographic and musical instruments (8.3%). China imports more nuclear reactors & machinery (22.5%) than it exports (16.8%). <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/jpyomlda5jvxv2u.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"><P></P></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-51752539627364796462011-03-16T08:29:00.001-07:002011-03-16T08:29:09.767-07:00EU Calls for Nuclear Stress Tests…<p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYDXQ9Ckn4I/AAAAAAAAAqA/e0ynY5uvJzk/s1600-h/unknown%5B3%5D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="unknown" border="0" alt="unknown" align="left" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYDXRCXzuqI/AAAAAAAAAqE/QeRb7f2U3VA/unknown_thumb%5B1%5D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="240" height="158" /></a>EU Calls for Nuclear Stress Tests Alert: 144 Sites in EU Region to Be Assessed for Safety Risks</p> <p>The EU's Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said on Tuesday that he wants nuclear plants to undergo stress tests to prove their safety, not only in the EU27 countries but also in neighbouring states, according to Reuters. The comments followed an emergency meeting of nuclear experts in Brussels convened in response to the Japanese nuclear accident.</p> <p> <br clear="all" />There will need to be a process to agree the criteria on which the tests will be based. Mr Oettinger referred to the tests as voluntary, but under such close public scrutiny we would expect all EU sites to submit themselves to this initiative. <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" />There are currently 144 plants located in Europe, producing around 30% of the region’s electricity output. A programme of safety testing and any subsequent upgrading work required at EU nuclear sites would represent new business for companies involved in nuclear design, testing and equipment provision. <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" />The counter-argument is that any new work in relation to stress-testing may simply offset delays or cancellations for new nuclear projects that will now inevitably face additional political and public opinion hurdles. <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/01zt8tsz2im1b0i.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-60012373240411564502011-03-16T06:39:00.001-07:002011-03-16T06:39:21.726-07:00Eastern Japan earthquake/Consumer electronics/electronic components<p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYC9hjDO0uI/AAAAAAAAAp0/XFIXJJUb_80/s1600-h/consumer%5B3%5D.jpg"><strong><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="consumer" border="0" alt="consumer" align="left" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYC9h22ViuI/AAAAAAAAAp4/nDBX6wAPkiE/consumer_thumb%5B1%5D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="226" height="223" /></strong></a><strong>Alert: Update 2 – Potential indirect damage gradually becoming clearer</strong></p> <p>Further update on earthquake impact – In light of information gathered on March 15, it has become even clearer that the restoration of electric power and other infrastructure is critical. Furthermore, the suspension of operations at parts and materials plants pose a risk to the production of electronic components, and the potential impact from the convergence of multiple effects is gradually becoming clearer. See also: <a href="http://www.leakedresearch.com/2011/03/asia-macro-flash-regional-macro-impact.html">Asia Macro Flash: Regional Macro Impact from Japan Earthquake</a> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/nhhtcv8y4kzdx2u.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-52391830339039729492011-03-16T06:26:00.001-07:002011-03-16T06:26:31.310-07:00Software: Quick Assessment of Japan Revenue Exposure<p><img style="display: inline; float: left" align="left" src="http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR65E8uS9FAKHvIazRj7udQ3OKEc7v-iSDlpevdDdNdJqDATZNfLg" />Software: Quick Assessment of Japan Revenue Exposure </p> <p>Alert: ADBE, CRM, ADSK most exposed </p> <p>In light of the devastating earthquake in Japan, we have estimated the revenue exposure of our companies in Japan. We estimate ADBE, CRM and ADSK have the largest Japan exposure, all over 10%. INTU, QLIK, BMC, CA and VMW have the lowest exposure, all under 5. <br clear="all" /></p> <p> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/zt6ui9minsrlzeh.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></p> <div style="padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: none; padding-top: 0px" id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:5b5e2c2e-7c50-443c-bcc4-0284cd741461" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent">del.icio.us Tags: <a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/INTU" rel="tag">INTU</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/QLIK" rel="tag">QLIK</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/BMC" rel="tag">BMC</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/CA+and+VMW" rel="tag">CA and VMW</a></div> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-34506851497039317882011-03-16T06:14:00.001-07:002011-03-16T06:14:57.024-07:00U.S. Autos & Auto Parts — Japan Follow-Up: Latest Thoughts on U.S. Industry Implication<a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYC3zq9mKhI/AAAAAAAAAps/ULdWYsc4a-c/s1600-h/DOWNGRADE%5B3%5D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DOWNGRADE" border="0" alt="DOWNGRADE" align="left" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYC30N4rLJI/AAAAAAAAApw/EspeXjkzsCs/DOWNGRADE_thumb%5B1%5D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="240" height="170" /></a>Based on our latest conversations with companies and industry contacts, we provide follow-up thoughts on potential industry implications from the very tragic events in Japan. We note that the unfolding situation remains fluid. See also:  <a href="http://leakedresearchjap.blogspot.com/2011/03/taiwan-semiconductors-application.html">Taiwan Semiconductors: Application Processor Operations Likely to Be Halted</a> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/php4qlociujp155.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-11535687238053300142011-03-16T06:10:00.001-07:002011-03-16T06:10:53.978-07:00Mizuho Financial Group (8411) Alert: To make brokerage and trust units into full subsidiaries<a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYC22xOhVHI/AAAAAAAAApk/Sh2LI05_Fyc/s1600-h/images%20%287%29%5B3%5D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="images (7)" border="0" alt="images (7)" align="left" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYC23aLeb-I/AAAAAAAAApo/4t-lrZeYKXs/images%20%287%29_thumb%5B1%5D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="225" height="225" /></a>Mizuho Financial Group announced plans to make brokerage and trust banking affiliates wholly-owned subsidiaries from September. Buyouts via share exchange will be undertaken for Mizuho Trust & Banking (currently 75% owned by Mizuho), Mizuho Securities (60%), and Mizuho Investors Securities (67%). We take a positive view of the potential impact in strengthening governance and balance-sheet effects <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/1ahp62dvqkmuzk6.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-3382917797867179642011-03-16T06:07:00.001-07:002011-03-16T06:07:28.479-07:00Global Commodities Daily<p><strong><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYC2DoiDsHI/AAAAAAAAApc/OivBa2zKHgQ/s1600-h/Commodities%5B3%5D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Commodities" border="0" alt="Commodities" align="left" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYC2EAdE3fI/AAAAAAAAApg/8HCSLlde_uM/Commodities_thumb%5B1%5D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="240" height="143" /></a>Macroeconomic outlook for commodity prices </strong></p> <p>LME market comments — The LME complex has been pushed into red in early trade, over concerns that the economic and financial impact of Japan’s earthquake/tsunami/nuclear crisis would hurt the demand for industrial metals. Equity markets across Europe and Asia fell noticeably after the Japanese prime minister warned of the risks of further radiation leaks. The precious metal groups are also trading in the red, with gold falling due to fund and Japanese institutional liquidation <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /></p> <p><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/dvbz6bgei66bx3p.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-51274764049873140032011-03-16T06:03:00.001-07:002011-03-16T06:03:01.242-07:00Stars Align: Update to the Quant Focus Lists<p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYC1AjGldUI/AAAAAAAAApU/zqfCNDoja6I/s1600-h/quant%5B3%5D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="quant" border="0" alt="quant" align="left" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYC1BK7RNFI/AAAAAAAAApY/a_qgYNLVctI/quant_thumb%5B1%5D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="240" height="173" /></a>Japanese Idols and Double Troubles — In "Stars Align", we highlight stocks for which the quant model offers a strong view (positive or negative) that is in agreement with the rating of our fundamental analyst (at the time of inclusion in the portfolio).</p> <p>Changes to Japanese Idols — Japanese Idols are stocks that rank in the extreme corner of our Attractive quadrant and are rated Buy or Hold by our fundamental analysts. This week Aisin Seiki (7259) drops out, while NTT (9432), Sharp (6753) and Eisai (4523) are among the new entrants. Please see Figure 2 for the complete list.</p> <p>Changes to Double Troubles — Stocks that rank in the extreme corner of our Unattractive quadrant and are rated Sell or Hold by our fundamental analysts form our Double Troubles portfolio. This week Asatsu (9747) drops out while Tokyo Steel (5423), Sanyo Steel (5481), Mixi (2121) and Kagome (2811) are among the large cap entrants. Please see Figure 3 for the complete list.</p> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/g0toy9pc7iamuf0.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-1178542083565386892011-03-16T05:56:00.003-07:002011-03-16T05:56:49.268-07:00Japan Macro Flash: Tentative Estimate of the Macroeconomic Impact<p><strong><img style="margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; display: inline; float: left" align="left" src="http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR08hukfuFSTqo1Hu4aYzIaMoOhyq5lT77qlAh7aBsxIJ3Srj_VIA" />Total damage could match that of the Great Hanshin Earthquake —</strong> It may be too early to discuss how much damage was done to housing and infrastructure, but we suspect it could match that of the Great Hanshin Earthquake in 1995. We estimate that the total damage to housing alone may reach several trillion yen. Roughly speaking, combined with damage to infrastructure (roads, railroads, ports and so forth), the total damage may go as high as ¥5-10tn</p> <p><strong>Earthquake to strongly depress near-term economic activity —</strong> Gross prefectural production of four prefectures particularly hard hit by the earthquake/tsunami combined has a 6.2% share of nationwide gross production. Regarding manufacturing production, the four prefectures account for a higher 7.2% share. If we assume that the production level of these prefectures declines by an average of 20-40% for the remainder of March, industrial production in the month would be dragged down by 1.0-2.0%. If a rolling blackout continues, it appears quite difficult for the production level to normalize soon. <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/nmqpect9ipq072x.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"><P></P></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-12592015765561179882011-03-16T05:56:00.001-07:002011-03-16T05:56:17.985-07:00Taiwan Semiconductors: Application Processor Operations Likely to Be Halted<a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYCzb4Knv-I/AAAAAAAAApM/GGzpeVZ9JJA/s1600-h/semiconductor3.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="semiconductor" border="0" alt="semiconductor" align="left" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYCzcTmT2BI/AAAAAAAAApQ/0tq0KBCQcgY/semiconductor_thumb1.jpg?imgmax=800" width="240" height="163" /></a>Low inventory in the channel — Our channel checks suggest that MGC has stopped taking new orders and has not given any specific date for resumption in production. According to our supply-chain checks, second-largest BT supplier Hitachi’s factories and facilities are not damaged significantly. Hitachi is said to be in a position to take orders but can’t arrange immediate shipments. Our checks with our Japan analysts indicate that MGC’s plants and machines were damaged by the quake, and it may take months for production to resume. Although Hitachi’s plant is less damaged, nuclear fears and the disruption of logistics may prolong the production and delivery of BT materials. <a href="http://www.leakedresearch.com/2011/03/korea-memory-beat-potential-supply.html" target="_blank">Korea Memory Beat</a>: Potential Supply Bottlenecks from the Earthquake The current inventory stock of BT in the Taiwan supply chain ranges from two to four weeks, in our view. <a href="http://www.leakedresearch.com/2011/03/asia-macro-flash-regional-macro-impact.html" target="_blank"><strong><font size="3">Asia Macro Flash</font></strong></a>: <strong><em>Regional Macro Impact from Japan Earthquake <br clear="all" /></em></strong> <p> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/bnid7uo266dqaf9.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-20844182004344421202011-03-16T05:55:00.001-07:002011-03-16T05:55:01.186-07:00Asia Macro and Strategy Outlook: Inflation Risks Rising – Policy and Market Implications<p>Food inflation trends show significant disparity across the entire region — Food prices have become a serious issue in VN, IN, KR and CH, but remain relatively benign in SG, TW, MY and PH. We attribute this to four factors: source of food supply, how the food in the CPI basket is defined, FX appreciation, and domestic food subsidy policies. With food prices expected to be problematic this year, coupled with an increase in energy prices, commodityfueled inflation pressures will likely remain a lingering issue for the region. <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYCpZapbVHI/AAAAAAAAAo0/SAzbn6pPQnY/s1600-h/alexaranda0903000013.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="alexaranda090300001" border="0" alt="alexaranda090300001" align="left" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYCpZinG1PI/AAAAAAAAAo4/Axj1aNaV5U0/alexaranda090300001_thumb1.jpg?imgmax=800" width="168" height="139" /></a>Against this backdrop, monetary conditions are still loosening for many — Our MCI estimates show that monetary conditions in the last 6-12 months have largely been “loosening” for all countries except the Philippines and India, though in the latter’s case, policy looks loose relative to LT history. This implies more room for Central Banks to tighten monetary policy further </p> <p><strong>Energy prices adding fuel to the fire </strong></p> <p>We’ve recently upgraded our oil price forecast, with our colleagues calling for WTI crude oil prices to reach $100/bbl in 6-12 months’ time (previously forecasted at $93/bbl), after oil prices have already risen about 24% in the last five months. Improving confidence in global recovery should continue to support prices, on top of support from investment flows. 3 The direct impact of energy prices on inflation should be less than that of food, as the weight of energy is less than 30% the weight of food in the region’s CPI basket. Moreover, the pass thru is also blunted in a number of countries in that subsidize fuel and other energy prices to varying degrees –China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Vietnam. <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><strong>Headline already seeping into core <br clear="all" /></strong>Core inflation pressure is already creeping higher in many countries. We think inflation concerns in Asia go beyond food and energy as the risk rises that it seeps into core. The most acute core inflation pressures can be seen in India, which come against a backdrop of very strong growth and a more prolonged high headline inflationary environment, and in Vietnam where the macro policy credibility of the Central Bank is weak and the currency has sharply depreciated. However, we are also seeing rising core momentum in other countries, particularly China, Malaysia, and Singapore and, to a lesser extent, Indonesia and Thailand. In general, core pressures are seen in the large domestically-driven economies as well ASEAN, but seem generally more benign so far in Taiwan and Korea <br clear="all" /><a href="http://www.leakedresearch.com/2011/03/eastern-japan-earthquake-energy-sector.html" target="_blank">Eastern Japan Earthquake</a><em><font size="2"> / Energy Sector Alert: Looking at the Short-Term and Long-Term Issues <br clear="all" /></font></em></p> <p><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/egstn7o3zmnxkv9.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-48497036388863330192011-03-16T05:51:00.001-07:002011-03-16T05:51:29.551-07:00Technology Asia 2011 Outlook–Nomura<p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYCyT_p5YsI/AAAAAAAAApE/Ov19FDSNfK8/s1600-h/vladru090300012%5B3%5D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="vladru090300012" border="0" alt="vladru090300012" align="left" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYCyUJsEGoI/AAAAAAAAApI/zX5v7J5ehOw/vladru090300012_thumb%5B1%5D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="168" height="126" /></a><strong>Intensifying polarization</strong></p> <p>We see increasing polarisation within the Asia technology sub-sectors and classify stocks either Bullish or Bearish. We are Bullish on select end-products (ie, smartphones, tablet PCs) and Bearish on desktop PCs and feature phones.</p> <p>We are Neutral on LCD-TVs (including LED-TVs) owing to severe oversupply and much weaker-than-expected demand. The solar industry (Bearish) appears to be entering oversupply in 2011 with reduced policy subsidies. We are Neutral on IT services & software amid expectations of moderating revenue growth in 2012F, increased supply-side risks, limited operational scope and increased taxation. <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" />Top BUYs: SEC, HTC and TPK. Meanwhile, we are cautious on names with weak growth prospects, PC-related components, feature phone-related components and LCD and LED-related components, including MediaTek, Taiwan DRAM names and Seoul Semi (all REDUCE). <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" />Irrespective of industry trends, we like PC player, Acer, for its cost control and customer mix. We also like HCL Tech in IT services & software for its competitive positioning vs MNC vendors, operational scope and earnings growth potential. <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/tvcnlho3h0dpagv.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"><P></P></embed></p> <p> <div style="padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: none; padding-top: 0px" id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:91c05ef4-9d71-4c8b-9cfc-e059cbe8d6cf" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent">del.icio.us Tags: <a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Acer" rel="tag">Acer</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Asustek" rel="tag">Asustek</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Canadian+Solar" rel="tag">Canadian Solar</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Catcher" rel="tag">Catcher</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Chicony" rel="tag">Chicony</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Cognizant" rel="tag">Cognizant</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Epistar" rel="tag">Epistar</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/E-Ton+Solar" rel="tag">E-Ton Solar</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Everlight" rel="tag">Everlight</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/GCL+Holdings" rel="tag">GCL Holdings</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/HTC" rel="tag">HTC</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Hynix" rel="tag">Hynix</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/JA+Solar" rel="tag">JA Solar</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Suntech+Power" rel="tag">Suntech Power</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Solargiga" rel="tag">Solargiga</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Simplo" rel="tag">Simplo</a>,<a href="http://del.icio.us/popular/Yingli+Green" rel="tag">Yingli Green</a></div></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-67678427866121960702011-03-16T05:38:00.001-07:002011-03-16T07:38:59.904-07:00Japan Economic Daily: Earthquake Countermeasures likely to be Quite Large<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCQ3pSSy-EkzaM_MIfcxtxxXq_mKk58WAbQU1Vs1dO099Pxz7Xn6XiwFyA_1Mlmr3NDRC6sdf8u_YWbc43lBzuPt9KptIVRHWVj1uzcNEaX8geUoSWF42YindOES-Igyj0MGsG9127Dbg/s1600/yellowj090603422.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCQ3pSSy-EkzaM_MIfcxtxxXq_mKk58WAbQU1Vs1dO099Pxz7Xn6XiwFyA_1Mlmr3NDRC6sdf8u_YWbc43lBzuPt9KptIVRHWVj1uzcNEaX8geUoSWF42YindOES-Igyj0MGsG9127Dbg/s1600/yellowj090603422.jpg" /></a><br />
Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said yesterday that the size of the supplementary budget related to the Eastern Japan earthquake “will have to be larger than that for the Great Hanshin Earthquake although we do not have a concrete figure in mind yet.” <br />
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<embed allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" height="650" src="http://www.box.net/embed/v661kc1j3yunaah.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="550" wmode="opaque"></embed>Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-17096550183017324302011-03-16T05:06:00.001-07:002011-03-16T05:06:43.857-07:00Impact of Japan Earthquake Alert: Direct Impact Limited<p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYCn0AIfkqI/AAAAAAAAAok/LsxTB1jIyHU/s1600-h/japan_fire_miyagi%5B3%5D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="japan_fire_miyagi" border="0" alt="japan_fire_miyagi" align="left" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYCn0iD-iDI/AAAAAAAAAoo/Liwt73_iqjE/japan_fire_miyagi_thumb%5B1%5D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="240" height="144" /></a>The direct impact for US petrochemicals producers is limited, though the Japan supply dislocation could cause ethylene prices to go up near term. Outside of petrochemicals, we also believe the direct impact on electronic chemicals producers like DD, DOW and APD is limited. In addition we have received numerous questions about the impact on US natural gas prices. Citi’s E&P analyst Bob Morris believes there is little to no impact on US natural gas demand. </p> <p>Japan accounts for 3% of sales for DOW and 5% for DD, and both companies have electronics facilities in the region. DD’s research and manufacturing facility in Utsunomiya incurred some damage and is expected to remain closed until assessments are completed. The remaining DD sites in Japan are operational. For DOW, one facility experienced flooding but the rest are operational. We do expect some impact on demand as wafer production has been halted at Shin-Estu Chemical’s Shirakawa plant and SUMCO’s Yonezawa plant. Overall, Japan accounts for over 30% of global semiconductor capacity. See also <a href="http://www.leakedresearch.com/2011/03/taiwan-semiconductors-application.html" target="_blank">processor operations</a> being halted <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/5ksx1z7mmh17m3e.swf" width="550" height="600" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-76822740161522252082011-03-16T04:58:00.001-07:002011-03-16T05:00:15.762-07:00A Look at the day ahead March 16, 2011 (Wed)<a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYCmATHexHI/AAAAAAAAAoc/JfAuIwgPe4Q/s1600-h/STUDY%5B3%5D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="STUDY" border="0" alt="STUDY" align="left" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYCmAxe-wNI/AAAAAAAAAog/-fpDxOSz2No/STUDY_thumb%5B1%5D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="128" height="118" /></a>1Q business outlook survey — Amid increasing signs of rebounding economic activity, the BSI is likely to improve. We are paying attention to plans for sales, profits and business investment for fiscal 2011, which will be revealed for the first time. <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /> <p><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/a31b8ohcnp21ydt.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-41267237081857257052011-03-16T04:54:00.001-07:002011-03-16T04:54:34.520-07:00General Electric Company (GE): Liability in Japanese Nuclear Crisis<img style="margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; display: inline; float: left" align="left" src="http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRJLpTVh2dTiXLb3QToGaijT2eDNq7CFLsgq5m0q8fEbXTAiNt5" />General Electric Company (GE) While it is still early in the unfolding nuclear facility crisis in Japan, we are getting many questions from investors as to what GE’s liability might potentially be. Based on the long-standing channeling laws in effect in multiple countries (including Japan, China, France, Canada, Germany, Russia, UK, and the US), liability for nuclear accidents and damage to third parties is channeled exclusively to the plant operators and the government. The plant operators carry the insurance. This would mean that there is no right to recourse against suppliers of nuclear equipment like GE. GE designed all six of the reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi facility, which is operated by the Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO). Reactors 1, 2, and 3 are failing and the other three (4, 5, and 6) were offline at the time. GE supplied equipment for reactors 1, 2, and 6. Toshiba supplied 3 and 5, and Hitachi supplied No. 4. In the meantime, GE has been saying publicly that it is offering technical assistance to TEPCO and the Japanese government. By our estimates, GE’s nuclear business represents about 3% of total company revenues.  <h3><font style="font-weight: bold"><a href="http://www.leakedresearch.com/2011/03/japan-impact-on-alternative-energy.html" target="_blank">Japan Impact on Alternative Energy</a></font>-  <font size="2"><em>Alert: Japan Nuclear Issues Help Renewables Sentiment, but the Near-Term Remains Unclear</em></font></h3> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/lbt985lkyu3pdpn.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed> <br clear="all" /> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-16761376538074047472011-03-16T04:53:00.001-07:002011-03-16T04:53:31.688-07:00Implications from Japan: Dry Bulk Shipping “Negative short term, but may reverse longer term”<p><strong><img style="margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; display: inline; float: left" align="left" src="http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT5aHPzs6_5_TmeFkGN48VbweKS67-Oq9AZfj9Oh0vJp7-p1Do" />Port damage largely isolated to container market —</strong> While it’s too early to assess the full extent of the damage from Friday’s earthquake, major damage appears to be isolated to the ports in Northeast Japan, consisting primarily of medium-sized container terminals. Gross production of the four prefectures hardest hit make up 6.2% of Japan’s gross production and 7.2% of its manufacturing production.</p> <p><strong>No ships under coverage damaged —</strong> The four dry bulk shipping companies under our coverage (EGLE, GNK, NM, and SB) have confirmed that none of their vessels have experienced damage from the tsunami, as all their vessels positioned in the region were far enough at sea to avoid harm. <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/ym3x90vlgeopyz4.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-22169642978024008062011-03-16T04:52:00.001-07:002011-03-16T04:52:26.887-07:00Japan Impact on Alternative EnergyAlert: Japan Nuclear Issues Help Renewables Sentiment, but the Near-Term Remains Unclear <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYCkeADncmI/AAAAAAAAAoU/Zgy0CsyxMxQ/s1600-h/green3.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="green" border="0" alt="green" align="left" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/_UYlYxgQkCxw/TYCkeYuxrmI/AAAAAAAAAoY/_B2xtyGZH_4/green_thumb1.jpg?imgmax=800" width="182" height="221" /></a>Actual supply impact limited — Based on our global supply model, we estimate Japan accounts for <10% of global module production and much less at the upstream poly/wafer level with most upstream suppliers focused on the semi market. Additionally, much of this supply is captive to the Japan market. Thus, while the tragic events at the Fukushima nuclear plant should not be negative for pricing, it is hard to see a meaningfully positive impact on renewables. <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /> <p> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/48snsigon7nqg30.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-14761454501515062802011-03-16T04:51:00.001-07:002011-03-16T04:51:44.625-07:00Eastern Japan earthquake/Food sector<p><strong><img style="margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; display: inline; float: left" align="left" src="http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTcWpCzFJ6MAQIpMD3GJf85zPXW-Rv_-c9EDdzj16N00ZTC4Taq" />Alert: Spike in demand for instant noodles, Kirin plant a worry</strong></p> <p>Conclusion — We estimate that the earthquake-afflicted prefectures of Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima account for 5% of nationwide food consumption. Among plants, we understand Kirin’s Sendai plant has been badly damaged. There has been a spike demand for instant noodles, although we expect it to be only temporary.</p> <p><strong>Plants</strong> — At Kirin’s Sendai plant, four storage tanks were damaged and there are no immediate prospects for a resumption of operations. Kagome expects its Nasu plant to take a month or more to get back to normal. There are no reports of major damage at Asahi Breweries, Ajinomoto, or Nissin Foods Holdings. We understand Toyo Suisan's Sanriku aquaculture facilities were damaged, but there was no damage to its noodle facilities. Yakult reports damage to some facilities at its plants in Iwate and Fukushima. JT has suffered from a leak and other damage at its Kanto plant but looks to be able to offset this with increased production at its Tokai plant. <br clear="all" /><strong>See also <a href="http://www.leakedresearch.com/2011/03/asia-pacific-economics-inflation-oil.html" target="_blank">Asia Pacific Economics</a>: Inflation, Oil and Impossible Trinity Challenges <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /></strong><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/926nmg0m4ojitnk.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"><P></P></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3875596343036025512.post-57963950971436616142011-02-21T05:19:00.000-08:002011-03-16T06:20:36.976-07:00Sony (6758) “Asset Light” and “Sony United” ?<p><img style="display: inline; float: left" align="left" src="http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTXgGPZlWxbbHTX1dsDwvfXqNzo8tEFpe8jDOrF7yoF2tjWYwsSdQ" />Sony (6758) </p> <p>“Asset Light” and “Sony United” strategies starting to drive profit </p> <p>On track for an electronics revival — Sales growth is modest but we newly factor in better margins. We think the key to profitability in TVs is the transfer of operations to Hon Hai at plants which Sony has sold to the Taiwanese firm. In cameras we expect Sony’s marketing muscle to succeed in emerging markets, where demand is growing. We think collaboration with network operations will also contribute to differentiation. The new PSP2 game machine should create a growth opportunity for the game business. In semiconductors, we think growthdirected investment in BSI CMOS will lead to earnings. <br clear="all" /> <br clear="all" /><embed src="http://www.box.net/embed/rtfrlxlr62d5v5l.swf" width="550" height="650" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always"><P></P></embed></p> Leaked Researchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15011215719212534519noreply@blogger.com0